March 11, 2026 - Iran War Could Benefit Electric Vehicles

This is the Telemetry Transportation Daily for March 11, 2026, and I'm Sam Abuelsamid, Vice President of Market Research for Telemetry.  

The Middle East war that was sparked by American and Israeli attacks on Iran less than two weeks ago could spark a revival in interest for electric vehicles if it continues for any length of time. While oil prices have settled back a bit since last week, when Brent crude briefly hit $120/barrel, we almost certainly have not seen the end of increased oil prices. Yesterday in California, many gas stations were selling regular fuel for $6 or more per gallon, and even in Michigan, where gas was as low as $2.85 two weeks ago, it was up to $3.60 per gallon. Iran has reportedly begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, where more than 22% of the world's oil flows from Gulf states. When war becomes as asymmetrical as it has in the Middle East, no matter what politicians on either side say, the conflict is unlikely to end anytime soon. 

Given that we will likely be facing higher prices for gasoline and diesel for some time, the opportunity still exists for automakers to leverage the production capacity they built up for EVs. There are new, lower-cost EVs at dealers now, like the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Bolt, with more to come. Kia has confirmed it will launch the EV3 crossover in the second half of this year, and Ford should have its Universal EV truck by the beginning of 2027. But an even larger opportunity exists for many drivers with the flood of off-lease EVs that will be coming to market throughout the remainder of this year and into 2027. Vehicles like the Fiat 500e and previous generation Leaf that were leased with substantial tax credits for very low monthly rates will start to be available with relatively low mileage. Even slightly more expensive models like the Hyundai Ioniq 5 will also be available. Generally, all EVs have had significant depreciation, even though batteries actually hold up very well. 

This is an opportunity for anyone who anticipates needing a replacement vehicle or wants something not dependent on oil prices to try out an EV at relatively low cost. If you have access to charging, 2026 will be a great time to try out a used EV. 

Thanks for listening.